Risk Perception and Analysis

Aims and objectives

• To provide an understanding of the philosophy and terminology concerning the idea of risk. 
• To provide an understanding of the nature of human perception and experience of risk. 
• To recognise situations where potential loss occurs and how humans respond to these situations. 
• To understand the general principles and practical techniques of risk identification, assessment, analysis and control.

Teaching methods

Assessment

Generic skills outcomes

• Ability to apply knowledge of basic engineering management fundamentals. 
• Ability to communicate effectively, not only with engineers but also with the community at large. 
• In-depth technical competence in at least one engineering discipline. 
• Ability to understand problem identification, formulation and solution. 
• Ability to utilise a systems approach to design and operational performance. 
• Ability to function effectively as an individual in a project team, have the capacity to be a leader or manager as well as an effective team member. 
• Understanding of the social, cultural, global and environmental responsibilities of the professional engineer, and the need for sustainable development. 
• Understanding of professional and ethical responsibilities and have a commitment to uphold these responsibilities.
• Expectation of the need to undertake lifelong learning, and capacity to do so.

Content

• Risk terminology and system modelling: Nature and origin of uncertainty. Historical overview of risk, phenomenology of risk and application of the scientific method. Risk measurement, risk diagrams and analysis of risk related data; recording of data. Concepts of causation; objectivity and subjectivity related to risk occurrence. Types of risk: voluntary and involuntary.
• Human perception of risk: Human response to uncertainty and risk, terminology and concepts. Social cognition, perception; personal and social attribution with regard to risk; attitudes and attitude change; motivation; theory of cognitive dissonance. 
• Risk analysis and use of modelling: Application of risk estimation, psychological, energy damage and generalised time sequence models to occurrence investigation.
• Risk estimation and loss rate concept: Sources of risk data - probability, failure and reliability.
• Fault tree and event trees analysis: Techniques and applications. Failure modes and effects analysis and HAZOPS (Hazard and Operability Studies). Priority Planning Matrixes.